Producing potential future distribution maps for the main species of French forests through IKS modeling — Part 1: Model evaluation and DST specification

PI : Myriam Legay, Department Head, Research, Development and Innovation, ONF – Nancy

Co-applicant : Eric Paillassa, CNPF-IDF

Collaboration :

• Hendrik Davi, UR 629 Ecologie des Forest Méditerranéennes , INRA, Avignon
• Vincent Badeau, UMR 1137 Ecologie et Ecophysiologie Forestière (EEF), INRA, Nancy-Lorraine
• Laurent Saint-André, UR 1138 Biogéochimie des Écosystèmes Forestiers (BEF), INRA, Nancy-Lorraine
• Jean-Charles Bastien, UR 0588 Amélioration Génétique et Physiologie Forestières (AGPF), INRA, Val de Loire

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The first phase of the IKSMAPS project consists in an evaluation of the IKS model, which simulates species distribution areas using a limiting climate factors approach. The second phase will focus on providing forest management planners and technical advisors with a facility dedicated to the climate by providing access to a systematic and consistent set of pre-simulated maps of climate change impacts on the main forest species used in France.

IKSMAPS aims to subject the IKS model to a number of specific tests to:

• evaluate its ability to accurately represent current species distribution in France,
• gauge its responsiveness to distribution data and its thresholds for methods adjustments,
• compare its results to simulations already published for the same species,
• to assess the finest resolution possible (in its present state for WorldClim using climate data sourced by IKS).

These tests will be overseen by professionals working with Forest Development institutions under supervisory guidance of a scientific committee who will provide critical coaching throughout the project and will ensure open communication is maintained with national and international initiatives in the field of forest impact modeling, such as the ACCAF metaprogramme (INRA), and the F2M2 H2020 project.

Results from phase one will support phase two which will focus on designing an effective tool to target the needs of technical advisors and experts in development within a context of climate services. Deployment of this decision support tool will ultimately aim to review application instructions for forest reproductive material.