PI :Jean Lemaire (IDF/CNPF)
Labex partenaires : François Lebourgeois et Christian Piedallu, LERFOB, UMR INRA, AgroParis Tech
Context — Following the 2003 heat wave and the drought in 2005, foresters have become increasingly sensitized to the effects of climate change. Far more than just a temporary effect, the climate has changed significantly over the past three decades; average temperatures have increased by approximately 1 ° C in France, with a decrease in rainfall in the South of France and an increase in the North. As the frequency of droughts has increased since the year 2000, requests for exemption from a single management plan for health cuts have multiplied. On a local level, massive dieback of certain species concern forest managers. Scientists working for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a scientific intergovernmental body) predict that temperatures will continue to increase by several degrees over the next century. Today, the vulnerability of existing species and understanding how species will adapt to future climatic scenarios is a fundamental issue for French forests. Using data tracking decline, the CNPF (French National Center for Forest Owners) produces climate vigilance maps to predict the potential number of years at risk for a given species relative to various climatic changes. Using forest inventory data from the IGN (the French National Institute of Geographic and Forest Information), LERFoB is developing models for dieback of tree species in order to define the primary causes of decline. This work is done through using digital maps tracking the main ecological factors affecting plants and by using maps showing different hypotheses of climatic evolution.
Objectives — The main objective of this project is to strike a balance between these two approaches and to disseminate both determining ecological factors responsible for dieback and to provide necessary vigilance maps.
Approach — LERFoB will provide a list of predicted climatic indicators causing dieback with corresponding maps showing how these indicators may evolve over time. The CNPF will make available its models showing relevant variables as well as improved methods used to calculate vigilance maps. The ecological factors considered in order to create these maps will be made available on the LERFoB SILVAE internet portal. Specific species to be processed will be oak, native and sessile, fir and Douglas fir.
- To identify species particularly vulnerable to climatic changes
- To identify climate thresholds values that can cause dieback
- To produce vulnerability maps and to make this integrated data available online (http://silvae.agroparistech.fr/home/)